U.Va. study: Housing crisis concentrated, not widespread

0_61_UVA_logo A new study from U.Va. says that the "housing crisis" — the rise in foreclosures and the significant drop of home values — is concentrated in only a handful of states. And even within a state, a small number of areas is dragging everyone’s numbers down.

The analysis, done by U.Va. professor William Lucy and graduate student Jeff Herlitz, looked at all 50 states, 35 major metro areas, and 236 counties.

The results? They found that 87 percent of housing losses in 2008 came from California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (plus "a modest number of metropolitan counties in other states").

From the press release:

Although there are pockets of substantial declines, claims that overall housing values have tanked nationwide are exaggerated, they said. "In the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, for example, prices have barely changed in the District of Columbia, Alexandria and Arlington County, and parts of Fairfax County in Virginia. The largest price declines ( more than 30 percent in 2008 ) have been in Prince William County, Va., but even there, the range of price declines in its six zip codes ranged from 49 percent to only 6 percent."

Discuss.

About Andrew Kantor

Andrew is VAR's editor and information manager, and -- lessee now -- a former reporter for the Roanoke Times, former technology columnist for USA Today, and a former magazine editor for a bunch of places. He hails from New York with stops in Connecticut, New Jersey, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Roanoke.
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4 Responses to U.Va. study: Housing crisis concentrated, not widespread

  1. Jeff Royce says:

    I’ve run into home buyers who are frustrated by this. They hear how bad the market is, and just “know” that sellers are asking too much for their homes in places like Alexandria. They are dumbfounded when these houses sell and feel like they can’t buy anything at a “right” price. It’s very hard to tell people that the market is strong in certain areas. They look at you like you’re crazy.

  2. Matt Wilkins says:

    As someone who lives nad works in Prince Williams County, I find some truth but also some misrepresentation to those states. There are more than six zip codes in the county and some zip codes are small and rural enough to not have enough market stats to paint a true picture or represent that County as a whole.

    I have to agre with Jeff. The other end of that spectrum are buyers who are afraid to make a move because they are paralyzed by the thought of their home’s value declining immeadiately/son after settlement/closing. I am seeing this as a result of the roller coaster cycle we had in 2008 where values dropped, plateaued during the summer, and then dropped again at the end of the year.

  3. We in Metro Atlanta share the same sentiment. We have certain suburbs around our city that have seen little to no change in property value during this ecomomic downturn. However, cleints of ours still want to low-ball and try to take peoples heads off due to the state of the national market. Jeff you are right about the difficulty in explaining this fact to people. They think you are lying.

  4. Pingback: UVA Study – pinpoints true housing crisis….

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