The risk of a Virginia home losing value over the next two years is dropping as the economy improves, according to the latest PMI Market Risk Index report. The report doesn’t discuss how much a home’s value could change — only the likelihood that in two years it will be worth more or less than it is today. The Market Risk Index is historically about 80% accurate.

Researchers calculated the risk using factors such as unemployment rates, housing affordability, and past price appreciation.

For Virginia homeowners, the takeaway is this: no matter where you live, there is a chance that your home will lose some of its value over the next two years. However, that risk is declining — take a look at the chart below. In every Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Area, the risk dropped between the third and fourth quarters of 2009. As the economy improves, home prices will continue to stabilize.

See the data for all 384 MSAs here.

Here’s how the 11 Virginia MSAs stack up:

MSA Risk rank Risk index 4Q 2009 Risk index 3Q 2009
       
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford elevated 54.2 71.6
Charlottesville moderate 49.8 66.5
Danville moderate 44.3 67.7
Harrisonburg elevated 64.6 76.5
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol TN-VA moderate 32.6 48.7
Lynchburg elevated 50.4 64.8
Richmond elevated 62 75.3
Roanoke elevated 69.7 84
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC high 82.9 89.4
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV high 77.4 89.1
Winchester VA-WV high 95.1 98.3

Wondering which MSA you live in? Check this page on Wikipedia.