Sep 26, 2011
New-home sales: News that isn’t
26 Sep 2011
Posted by Andrew Kantor
The US Census Bureau reports that sales of new homes in August were up from August a year ago, although down from July 2010. At least that’s what the headlines read.
But then you read the details. The number (295,000 new homes)
is 2.3 percent (±13.9%) below the revised July rate of 302,000, but is 6.1 percent (±18.8%) above the August 2010 estimate of 278,000.
In other words, August 2011 is anywhere from 11.6% below last year to 16.2% above last year. That’s what the “±13.9%” means.
Similarly, those August numbers are down 12.7% or up 24.9% from July — or anywhere in between
Not really useful, is it? “August new-home sales might be up or down” doesn’t make a compelling headline.
So move along. Nothing to see here.