The real one is much larger In his address on the economy tonight, President Obama will be announcing a plan to offer some kind of refinancing option for homeowners with government-backed mortgages. (We covered the potential plan here and here.)

Now Jaret Seiberg, a research analyst at MF Global (a commodities and derivatives broker), published a short analysis of what the President’s options are, titled, naturally, “Mortgage Refinancing: Evaluating Obama’s Options.”

If you have clients with mortgages are higher rates — clients who may normally have trouble refinancing because of credit issues or whatnot — this is the kind of thing you’ll want to know.

Heck, it could be a good excuse to touch base with a client you haven’t seen in a while.

Here’s a snippet:

Our view continues to be that the Obama administration will advance modest changes to HARP that will make the program available to more borrowers. So far there have been about 830,000 HARP refinancings.

We believe regulators expect modest changes to HARP could double that amount. Because we would not get a mass refinancing, we believe the program is unlikely to dry up liquidity in the mortgage market or drive up mortgage interest rates.