Barclay’s crystal ball: Housing could ‘normalize’ in 2014, 2015, or 2016

Roll the dice, predict the future.Analysts at Barclay’s have determined that, depending on a variety of conditions, the nation’s housing supply could reach “normal” levels in two, three, our four years.

That’s per a story in HousingWire.

For fun, count the number of “ifs,” “buts,” and “howevers,” and you’ll understand why we take any kind of prediction with a grain of salt.

If construction remains at or slightly above last year’s levels…

[If] household formation rates rise to 1.1 million…

If household formation exceeds net construction for a sustained period…

If underwriting criteria remain tight…

About Andrew Kantor

Andrew is VAR's editor and information manager, and -- lessee now -- a former reporter for the Roanoke Times, former technology columnist for USA Today, and a former magazine editor for a bunch of places. He hails from New York with stops in Connecticut, New Jersey, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Roanoke.
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