Home prices have room to fall — but how much?

The consensus seems to be that housing prices haven’t hit bottom yet, especially with the pipeline full of Shadow Inventory™ — REOs and short sales that haven’t hit the market yet.

But how much is left till we hit bottom? Answer: No one knows. But that doesn’t stop people from guessing analyzing.

Standard & Poor’s says it expects home prices to fall 4%. Then again, S&P’s analysts don’t have a great track record — think about those AAA ratings for junk mortgage CDOs.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings has its own guess model (not to be confused with an analysis) that says prices will fall a bit more than 9% more.

Let’s see… what other predictions have we had?

Last July, financial analyst Gary Shilling predicted housing prices would fall another 20% in 2012.

HousingPredictor.com doesn’t have a nationwide prediction, but it predicts that Las Vegas will see the biggest drop (8.4%), while Kansas City, Kans., will see a 5.8% increase. Virginia’s prices, it says, will slip between 3.3% (Arlington) and 5.3% (Virginia Beach).

In other words, who knows? But you can bet that if anyone does get it right, they’ll be the first to let us all know about it.

About Andrew Kantor

Andrew is VAR's editor and information manager, and -- lessee now -- a former reporter for the Roanoke Times, former technology columnist for USA Today, and a former magazine editor for a bunch of places. He hails from New York with stops in Connecticut, New Jersey, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Roanoke.
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