Mar 09, 2012
Home prices have room to fall — but how much?
09 Mar 2012
Posted by Andrew Kantor
The consensus seems to be that housing prices haven’t hit bottom yet, especially with the pipeline full of Shadow Inventory™ — REOs and short sales that haven’t hit the market yet.
But how much is left till we hit bottom? Answer: No one knows. But that doesn’t stop people from
Standard & Poor’s says it expects home prices to fall 4%. Then again, S&P’s analysts don’t have a great track record — think about those AAA ratings for junk mortgage CDOs.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings has its own
guess model (not to be confused with an analysis) that says prices will fall a bit more than 9% more.
Let’s see… what other predictions have we had?
Last July, financial analyst Gary Shilling predicted housing prices would fall another 20% in 2012.
HousingPredictor.com doesn’t have a nationwide prediction, but it predicts that Las Vegas will see the biggest drop (8.4%), while Kansas City, Kans., will see a 5.8% increase. Virginia’s prices, it says, will slip between 3.3% (Arlington) and 5.3% (Virginia Beach).
In other words, who knows? But you can bet that if anyone does get it right, they’ll be the first to let us all know about it.