Economist (and former senior VP for Fannie Mae) Thomas Lawler gave Calculated Risk his estimates for NAR’s forthcoming sales and inventory statement.

He’s expecting to see May home sales were up 12.3% over last year. That’s good, but there’s a bit more good news hidden in that number: The May-to-May jump was significantly higher than the April-to-April jump. Meaning that the pace of the recovery is increasing.

Lawler also expects NAR to report that inventory was down about 21% in May, and median sales prices were up about 6.6%.

He is basing his estimates on much of the same data NAR uses, so chances are he’ll be pretty close. NAR releases its May numbers June 21.