2012 prediction accuracy, 2013 guesses

There can’t be a Nate Silver for housing; Silver uses math for his predictions (which is why they’ve always been so accurate), and predicting the housing market requires some degree of guesswork. (Educated guesswork, hopefully.)

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk was kind enough to put together the 2012 predictions of various people and organizations so we can see who got how close.

  New Home Sales (000s) Total Starts (000s)
Fannie Mae 336 704
John Burns 359 717
Merrill Lynch 330 713
Moody’s 530
NAHB 360 709
Tom Lawler 365 740
Wells Fargo 350 690
2012 Actual* 370 770

*well, a solid estimate based on what thing look like this week

So Tom Lawler was the most accurate, and Moody’s the least.

And what do these same folks say about 2013? Again, thanks to Mr. McBride for doing the work:

  New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices
Barclays 424 988 +4.8%
Fannie Mae 452 659 936 +1.6%
Merrill Lynch 466 976 +2.6%
Moody’s 500 820 1,190 +1.4%
NAHB 447 641 910 +1.6%
Wells Fargo 460 680 990 +2.6%

Once again, Moody’s seems overly enthusiastic (on starts this time). Of course, we learned from the housing bubble that Moody’s tends to overrate things.) And Barclays is expecting much higher price than everyone else.

Once again we’ll have to wait to see who got it right. Me, I’m waiting for Lawler’s figures.

About Andrew Kantor

Andrew is VAR's editor and information manager, and -- lessee now -- a former reporter for the Roanoke Times, former technology columnist for USA Today, and a former magazine editor for a bunch of places. He hails from New York with stops in Connecticut, New Jersey, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Roanoke.
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