The other day I saw a Papa John’s pizza-delivery car that had several partisan bumper stickers on it. That, I thought, is just stupid — you’re guaranteed to turn off a sizeable number of people who see it. Yes, the cars are owned by the employees and not the company, but you would think Papa John’s would have rules. At most newspapers, for example, reporters are forbidden to put such stickers on their cars.

When you’re associating your business with your vehicle, opinion-free is the way to go. Especially when times in Virginia are changing.

See, there are a lot of new voters signing up in Virginia. So points out a story in today’s Washington Post, which shows a pretty major jump especially in the northern and eastern parts of the state. (Login required or use BugMeNot.)

Since 2004, Virginia has added almost 250,000 voters; in contrast, Pennsylvania has added only about 45,000. And more are coming — 1,800 per week in Fairfax county, for example.

The political ramifications are obvious, of course: The new registrants are in predominantly Democratic regions, putting Virginia solidly in play for the election in November, especially considering the elections of Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, and with Democrat Mark Warner’s lead over Republican Jim Gilmore large and growing.

Many — but not all — of these new voters are recent transplants to Virginia. Others are old residents who are registering to vote for the first time. Either way, after November we may be looking at a very different commonwealth.

As I’m sure any of the authors of this blog could attest, more consumers are ‘interviewing’ Realtors by reading their blog posts before they ever pick up the phone to make contact.  The Washington Post published an article yesterday in their Real Estate section titled “Making Connections: Web 2.0 Creates New Ways for Agents, Home Shoppers to Find Each Other“, and mentioned three of our VARBuzz authors in the article.

• Consumer’s comment about Bob Carney, author of FocusOnFrederick.com:

“I’d been told to never pick a Realtor out of a hat, but I feel like Bob was recommended to us out of the comments on the Internet,” she said. “I just remember reading Bob and going ‘Oh, yeah. He’s the one.’”

• Another homebuyer was quoted after working with Danilo Bogdanovic, author of LoudounScene.com and LoudounForeclosures.com:

“It came down to these other two agents. I didn’t know anything about them,” Shields said. Bogdanovic “was the only one you could get a personality from.”

• A client of Frank Llosa, author of blog.franklyrealty.com, said:

“When I read Frank’s stuff, I was really impressed by what he knew,” said Yeow, a government health scientist. “I realized he was in Northern Virginia and that sealed the deal.”

The article also touches on the pros and cons of using Redfin, as well as how consumers are looking to LinkedIn for recommendations, or perusing agents’ responses to questions on Trulia Voices to gauge their expertise in different market areas.  From personal experience I can attest that clients have picked me after deciding that my personality (as evidenced by my blog writing) was a good fit for theirs.

The quotes of these happy clients reinforces the idea that your blog is your ‘voice’ to connect with consumers.  Impressive that the three Realtors named in the article were all Buzz contributors… Kudos to Bob, Danilo, and Frank!

Cheers,

Heather

When I was working for the Roanoke Times, a bear got loose from (I believe) the zoo. It was caught without incident. But one of the photographers who had been listening to the whole thing on the police scanner quipped, "I was hoping it would head over to the Salem Fair."

Bad news sells papers and gets people to tune in to the evening report.

A solid housing market doesn’t make news, but the "waily, waily, waily" of a down market can. ("Woman commits suicide over foreclosure" — remember that from last week?)

It’s a bit wearing.

Enter the Real Estate Bloggers with a post, "26 Things The Media ISN’T Telling You About The Real Estate Market."

It’s time for the media to quit all the doom and gloom reporting, even if it gets more ratings than fluff stories; for the lazy agent to quit whining that there’s no work to go after; and for everyone to realize that what we’re REALLY seeing across most of the country is simply the leveling out of a major housing boom.

What follows is a list of facts gleaned from various sources. A few are worth pointing out.

4.  Only 15 out of 50 states have shown any actual price decline in the past year. The rest still show modest appreciation in home values.

Virginia had an overall increase of home values of six percent from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2008.

8.  A “boom” in economic terms means a period of unsustainable growth - with the term unsustainable being the keyword. In the real estate world, a boom market is considered one in which prices have risen over 30% in 3 years, while a bust market is one in which home prices have dropped by at least 15% over a 5-year span. By that definition, very few markets are experiencing a bust. It is more likely that prices are simply bottoming out from the big boom. (According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.)

Definitions can be tricky things. We’ve all see how terms like "bull market," "recession," even "torture" can be redefined to suit your point of view. But "housing bust" is a lot stronger than "post-boom housing readjustment."

21.  Most of the decline is seen around 2 main types of markets: weak, industrial economies that are under pressure from the struggles of the Big Three automakers; and the areas that were previously part of the biggest boom markets.

Virginia, in case you hadn’t noticed, is neither.

No one’s saying the housing market is running on all cylinders, or that there hasn’t been a pretty major decline. That’s obvious. But a little perspective can go a long way, and a little hard data can help. Kudos to the Real Estate Bloggers for giving some of each.

PS:

25.  Many real estate agents are helping to fuel the supposed ‘market bust’ by giving in to fear and worry. They believe what the media and politicians are saying and are simply giving up, using the excuse that ‘the market’s no good.’ If agents’ were out there working hard, cultivating prospects and persuading people to buy or sell, the market would show definite improvement.

For the third straight year — since Forbes started giving the honor — the magazine has named Virginia the best state for doing business.

W00t!

Quoth:

Virginia remains an excellent location for new or existing businesses. It has the best regulatory environment by our count, thanks to the second-best incentive programs in the country–as well as the fifth best tort atmosphere. Other high points include energy costs 30% below the national average and an educated labor force fueled by its proximity to Washington, D.C., and top colleges like (sic; should be "such as") the University of Virginia and William and Mary.

The rankings "measure states on six main areas of importance: business costs, labor supply, regulatory environment, current economic climate, growth prospects, and quality of life." ("Measure" is a strong word — most of those are subjective. But still.)

And now for a little schedenfreude:

Business costs are weighted the most, but low costs were not enough to keep Louisiana and  West Virginia from being the bottom two in our ranking.

Still, we can’t rest on our laurels. Our lead over #2 Utah is "razor thin." [Snarky rationale for Utah's high score deleted.] Plus, "Driven by higher labor costs, business costs in Virginia jumped, and are now approaching the national average."

And the big story, per Forbes, is Georgia, which has jumped from 15th to 5th place. Major lessons to be taken from those peach-eaters: Think international. Georgia has been doing it for a while, including opening an economic development office in Seoul 22 years ago. Result: Kia Motors is going to open a $1.2 billion car manufacturing facility in West Point, Ga. that will employ 2,500 people directly, "and another 5,000 or so workers will be needed for the numerous auto suppliers popping up around the Kia site."

Georgia has also opened offices in Beijing, Mexico City; Munich, São Paulo, and Tokyo.

In an amazing coincidence (really, it is), the next issue of Commonwealth magazine will focus on — wait for it — working with immigrants. Cool, huh?

From ABC News:

THE SENATE PASSES $300 BILLION HOUSING RESCUE PACKAGE TO AID HOMEOWNERS THREATENED WITH FORECLOSURE

Bailout or rescue? You decide.

From ABCNEWS.com:

U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY PAULSON SAYS NO BAILOUT FOR MORTGAGE GIANTS FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC PLANNED AT THIS TIME

From the wonderfully-named Kingston (Ontario) Whig-Standard, we learn that Canadian real estate agents (are they Realtors? or REALTORS? or REALTORS®?) are now required to ask for photo ID from buyers and sellers.

The logic, as usual, is ‘fighting terror.’

Intended to prevent individuals or groups from using real estate transactions to launder money, the new federal law requires agents to verify the ID of those involved in a transaction - for instance, with a passport or driver’s licence - and keep that information on file for five years. In the case of corporations buying and selling land, the identities of the corporation’s directors must be disclosed.

I can see it now. Next: American REALTORS® are required to search every home they sell and report any "suspicious findings" to law enforcement….

REALTORS® are coming out of the woodwork in reaction to the May/June issue of Commonwealth magazine. In addition to the comments left on the three feature articles here on VARbuzz (count them #1, #2, #3), we’ve also received numerous phone calls and e-mails about the issue. Here’s what members like you are saying:

“The non-English speaking population in Virginia was disproportionately affected by the foreclosure crisis. In my opinion, mortgage brokers took advantage of these people.”

“Short sales are not for someone who is looking for a quick close. What is more interesting about the process is the same bank that can give you a response on a foreclosure in 48 hours takes 60 days to go through the file on a short sale. We all realize it is two different departments but if you are sitting on a file with all of the required documents and four offers why wouldn’t you respond?”

“Short sales are a great opportunity for investors, but I still believe they should be avoided by people who are looking for a home.”

“It was funny for me to see this [magazine cover]. I had a house listed a few years ago in Austin and advertised it with an upsidedown photo. It got a lot of attention and I got some good calls off of it.”

“This is one of the clearest and most straightforward breakdowns of short sales that I have ever seen.”

“One of the only correct, concise articles I have read about short sales! … Thanks for a great article!”

We’ve also gotten a couple of inbound links from these articles. One comes from the Memphis Area Association of REALTORS®.  The other from Jeff Royce, a Fairfax REALTOR® who was quoted in one of the articles and explained his position more fully on his blog.

In related news, Cindy Jones says REALTORS® should factor in 25% more time to work a short sale listing, based on her personal experience (see the comments). What’s your experience?

Got feedback about this issue? Leave a comment or blog about it and link to us!

Oh, you haven’t read your May/June Commonwealth yet? Now you know what you’re missing.

This post is a more extensive version of an article by the same name that ran in the May/June issue of Commonwealth Magazine. This entry is also available as a 325k PDF download.

In a wonderful scene in The Godfather, Don Corleone has convened a meeting to negotiate a peace among the warring crime families. He begins his address to the assembled mob bosses by asking: “How did things ever get so far? I don’t know. It was so – unfortunate – so unnecessary.”

It’s hard not to think of that sentiment when we examine the housing crisis we now face in so much of the country, and in so many parts of Virginia.

How did things ever get so far?

The question invites a history lesson, one that informs so much of what we must do – and must not do – to see our way through.

As we try to make sense of our predicament, it is useful to understand the principal ingredients to economic policy, especially fiscal policy (established primarily by Congress and the president in formulating tax, regulatory and other economic policy) and monetary policy (established by the Federal Reserve through its control of money supply and interest rates). It is the interplay of policy decisions in these areas that provided the fertile ground for the highly questionable decisions of lenders, borrowers and investors that led to the current unpleasantness. So join me in an interesting stroll through recent economic history for the context that we need to understand how REALTORS® should act both individually and as an association in the light of current events.

The power of the Fed

First, however, a brief explanation about how the Fed affects interest rates and money supply. Interest rates are set mainly through the Fed’s (more…)

VAR recently brought a post on Realtor Magazine’s blog to my attention.  The article talks about how Charlotte, NC agents are having it “hard at the top”.  They are in one of the few US markets which has been unfazed by the national housing downturn. That is, Charlotte has actually shown an increase in property values over the past year. As a result, NAR economists continue to parade Charlotte in the press, as if to say, “See? It’s not all bad!”

This is having unintended consequences. It turns out that because of the all the positive press about how Charlotte is weathering the national housing storm, agents there are dealing with multiple fall-through contracts and sellers who perceive themselves to be immune from the downturn of the rest of the country.

In Hampton Roads, we are going through something similar to Charlotte.  VAR occasionally points to Hampton Roads as one of the bright spots in the Commonwealth’s housing market. According to VAR’s most recent figures, the Hampton Roads market has seen values hold steady, and there are even pockets of increases.  We also have the luxury of living in a very transient environment.  We constantly have people moving in and out of our area (in large part due to the military) and the need for housing is always active in our market.

I suppose we are fortunate in that the media coverage of our local real estate market has leaned toward the “doom and gloom” of the nation at large.  Reasonable sellers (for the most part) understand that they have competition in this market and need to compete in order to sell.

Wise brokers tend to use the term “Real Estate is Local”.  That is DEFINITELY the case in Hampton Roads.  We have pockets where you can’t seem to GIVE a house away and others where multiple offers are still par for the course.

So, where IS our market?  Our market is back to basics.  Buyers want to see affordable and in great condition.  Buyers are looking for single family homes under $245,000 with no updating needed.  If they look at condos and townhouses… there are a lot to choose from so they choose the BEST for LESS.  Higher end?  Buyers want the least expensive home in the neighborhood and they expect it to be in average to good condition.  Buyers want a DEAL.  If a seller won’t negotiate, the buyer will work their way down the street until they find a seller who will.

Foreclosures?  We really don’t have that many.  They normally sell within 15 percent of market value so the “deals” are not here.  I recently was asked by a bank to complete a BPO for a property about eight blocks from the Virginia Beach Oceanfront.  The bank asked for only foreclosed comparables and the closest I could find was more than nine miles away.

The biggest downturns we have seen are in the outlying areas (Isle of Wight, Suffolk, NE North Carolina).  These are areas that became “hot” when is was virtually impossible to obtain a decent, affordable home in Norfolk, Chesapeake or Virginia Beach.  Since the majority of the population commutes to Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake or Portsmouth, the outlying areas are feeling the pinch as commuters have chosen to live closer to their places of employment (with gas at $4/gallon).

So, we are counting our blessings here in Hampton Roads.  We still have buyers and we still have sellers.  Our inventory is up; however, our sales prices are pretty level.

On a side note…with the price of fuel so high, many vacationers are choosing to stay closer to home and we are seeing more and more tourists from the Commonwealth!  Maybe along those lines we can regain some of the lost second home market!