I have writer’s block. The deadline for my column in VAR’s Commonwealth Magazine passed earlier this week, and I’ve yet to type a word of anything coherent (no wry comments, please).

So here’s the deal: YOU can help me write the column. Don’t worry, it’s not difficult. All it requires is a sense of humor and the recollection of a song or two.

ANNOUNCING: Scott’s “Songs for an Economic Slump” Contest….

Here’s the premise: In the great soundtrack of life, even an economic slump needs its own theme song.

Below are several categories. Your job is to suggest a song title or snippet of lyrics – from actual, reasonably mainstream music – that in your opinion summarizes the particular category. Just leave your suggestion in the comments on this post. I’ll take the best suggestions…determined solely by me and my own subjective and somewhat warped sense of humor…and publish them in my June Commonwealth column. (And no, this contest is NOT just limited to Virginia REALTORS®.)

So be creative. Be clever. Just be helpful. I really do need to finish this @#!% column. Deadline for submissions is Monday at 5 p.m. EDT, and you can make recommendations in any or all categories.

1. SONGS YEARNING FOR THE HOUSING MARKETS OF 2004-2006

2. SONGS FOR SUBPRIME LENDERS

3. SONGS FOR ECONOMISTS WHO DIDN’T SEE THIS COMING

4. SAD SONGS FOR SHORT-SELLERS WHO THOUGHT THEIR NO-MONEY-DOWN A.R.M. WAS A SWEET DEAL

5. SONGS FOR UNREALISTIC SELLERS AND THE REALTORS® WHO OVERPRICE THEM

6. SONGS OF THOSE ADVOCATING A FEDERAL BAILOUT

7. SONGS DESCRIBING THE WHOLE, CURSED ECONOMIC MESS

Now go to it. I look forward to hearing your entries!

I spent the latter part of last week near Staunton facilitating a two-day planning retreat with Harrisonburg/Rockingham County REALTOR® leaders. The committee did great work charting a course for their 380-member association for the next three years or so. While what follows here is only a draft at this point, but thought you might be interested in their strategic goals (I’ve eliminated the actual objective below for brevity’s sake).

MISSION (Why we exist):
HRAR fosters its members’ career success by providing services, training, and information that enhance their professionalism and credibility in our community.

ENVISIONED FUTURE (What the future will look like with the implementation of this plan):
• HRAR is truly seen as the voice for real estate in the Central Shenandoah Valley.
• The public views HRAR members as professional and competent community leaders.
• Members view HRAR as an irreplaceable business resource, are proud of their association, and are actively engaged in its programs and activities.

GOALS AND OBJECTIVES (Our plan of work):
I. COMMUNITY ADVOCACY AND INVOLVEMENT / HRAR advocates for members’ and consumers’ interests through interaction with the public, policy makers, civic organizations and the media.
II. MEMBER PROFESSIONALISM AND CREDIBILITY / HRAR members conduct themselves in the highest professional manner and are respected by their peers and the public.
III. MEMBER COMPETENCE / HRAR members have the training and skills necessary to meet the evolving needs of today’s consumer and achieve business success.
IV. TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM / HRAR members are served by innovative technology tools that maximize their productivity and business success.
V. ORGANIZATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS / HRAR operates in an efficient, effective, proactive manner with a focus on delivering value to members and ensuring the association’s viability.

Find the complete draft here: hrar-draft-plan.doc

In coming weeks, they’ll be sharing the plan with their members and seeking input before they actually finalize and adopt it. Thanks and congrats to HRAR President Steve Hill for his leadership on this project.

Scott Rogers, with Coldwell Banker Funkhouser in Harrisonburg, VA, I mean.

Amid all the hyperbole and sweeping generalization in the media about the state of real estate markets nationwide, Rogers had added a dose of reality to that most-essential of REALTOR® marketing branding tools: He’s added his market’s monthly home sales data to the back of his business card. Clever, huh? Good conversation starter, certainly. Business tool? Absolutely. And remarkably low-tech (though of course he does direct folks to his blog for “more analysis”).

And yes, he prints new cards every month.

Several times in recent weeks I’ve read blog posts horn-tooting about how the blogger had now achieved a certain number of friends on Facebook or connections on LinkedIn, and thanking their adoring fans contacts for helping them achieve that significant milestone. “Stop the presses!” I think to myself (an unfortunately anachronistic exclamation, in this case), trying to figure out why such self-serving announcements are remotely newsworthy — particularly in light of the fact that I’m betting a goodly number of those LinkedIn folks are people you’ve never met (See my friend Cindy Butts’ rather astute take on that phenomenon here). While I subscribe to that blog for a reason (I generally get value from the blogger’s opinions and perspectives), helping him rejoice in his large number of “friends” (I use the term loosely) is not that reason. So why is he clogging my feedreader with such useless, conceited pap? Get over yourself, I want to say.

This, I think, is different from achieving a milestone in terms of number of subscribers to your blog; even magazines brag about such things. Having a large number of people read you says something about your credibility, and is worth telling (though not too often).

But friends on Facebook or connections on LinkIn? I’m sorry, but I don’t care. Unless I should care, and I’m missing the point.

Am I missing a potentially beneficial opportunity to brag about how many friends I have on LinkedIn? (148 as of this morning, including a few I don’t really know, but I didn’t want to hurt their feelings.)

So as my friend (and VAR past president) Kit Hale of Roanoke likes to say: “Help me understand…”

I asked our membership staff to run a generational analysis of VAR members according to how long they’d been in the business. Interesting results:

In the business 5 years or fewer:

Pre-Boomer (Born 1946 or earlier) 6% / Boomer (1946-1964) 34% / Gen X (1965-1976) 43% / Gen Y (1976- ) 17%

In the business more than 5 years:

Pre-Boomer (Born 1946 or earlier) 25% / Boomer (1946-1964) 56% / Gen X (1965-1976) 17% / Gen Y (1976- ) 2%

In the business more than 10 years:

Pre-Boomer (Born 1946 or earlier) 35% / Boomer (1946-1964) 57% / Gen X (1965-1976) 8% / Gen Y (1976- ) 0%

It’s also notable that a whopping 75% of our approximately 36,000 members have been in the business 10 years or fewer, and thus had never before seen the kind of market conditions we’re now experiencing.

As VAR’s CEO, there are several conclusions I can draw from this data that can help direct how VAR communicates with and engages our members, as well as the kinds of training and support they might expect from us. More about that when I have a random minute to think out loud….

The trouble with air guitar is that no matter how well you can fake it, you’re still only faking it.

People do peculiar things at the gym. Well, at my gym, anyway.

There’s the matron who moans erotically through her half-hour of stretching each morning. The gym-rat who drips sweat on each weight bench he uses, like a Doberman marking his territory. The paunchy, world-weary types who park themselves on the very weight machine I need and commence to doze between sets. And the chatters, voluble (or perhaps hard-of-hearing) sorts who feel inclined to carry-on indelicate conversations with their buddies clear across the weight room: “Mornin’, Roy. How’s that prostate doin’?”

Which is to say, I’ve seen it all – or rather, I thought I had…until the musician.

I discovered him one morning, hovering near the leg press, eyes half-closed, mouth set in customary overbite, and swaying euphorically to the wicked sounds of his…air guitar.

I did a double-take.

“Dude,” I thought, “You’re at least 40 years old and 40 pounds overweight, and you’re standing in the middle of a crowded YMCA, playing air guitar like you’re the coolest thing this side of the lap pool. Stop it before you embarrass yourself!”

But it was too late, of course.

No doubt he was aiming for casual nonchalance, as if a grown man playing air guitar in a weight room was somehow cool, commonplace, normal. And had he been 15, I might have given him a pass. As it was though, it was unsettling, pitiful even. Here was the ridiculously self-conscious attempting to look unself-conscious and failing spectacularly.
“I don’t care if you have Guitar Hero™ at home, and you’re perfecting your technique,” I wanted to say. “I don’t care if your first cousin was Leonard Skynard. There is no band at the Y. There’s no tour bus, no albums, no agents, no groupies. There’s not even a guitar, for Pete’s sake, and the last thing people want to see this early in the morning is a bare-legged Boss Hogg jamming to the sound of…silence.”

But I didn’t say that. Because the thing is…he was OK at it. I mean, as OK as one can be, if you can get past his age and physical condition and the venue and complete, embarrassing inappropriateness of it all. I could practically hear the opening riff of Sweet Home Alabama in my head.

And that’s when it occurred to me: The real trouble with air guitar is not that it’s juvenile or better strummed in private. It’s that no matter how well you can fake it, you’re still only, well…faking it.

These days air guitarists abound, metaphorically speaking. It’s easy to find artifice parading as art in the real estate business.

When you do only three transactions a year while you dabble in a half dozen other “businesses” on the side and still think you’re contributing to the credibility of the real estate profession: Dude, you’re playing air guitar.

When, as broker, you default on your duty to supervise and mentor your agents because, “They never listen anyway.” Dude, that’s air guitar.

When you tell clients what they want to hear rather than what they need to know: That’s air guitar.

When you prostitute your professionalism with clownish advertising gimmicks: Air guitar.

When you accept an overpriced listing just to get a listing: Definitely air guitar.

Ditto failing to reply to emails or embrace new technologies, generally considering your own interests before those of your clients, and treating real estate as a pastime rather than a profession.

What I’m talking about is pretending at professionalism rather than practicing it – the difference between hanging out at the gym and working out at the gym; between miming Santana with empty hands and making real music; and yes, between having a real estate license…and having a career.

Sadly, some folks still do peculiar things in real estate, too.

VAR’s CEO Scott Brunner is rumored to be a half-decent air-trombonist. Email him at scott@varealtor.com.

I know it may not be PC (in most REALTOR® circles, at least), but this editorial from today’s (March 12) Wall Street Journal makes good sense to me. The gist of it is that helping homebuyers stave off foreclosure (for an additional month or so…) and programs that attempt to keep marginal borrowers in their homes at any cost is actually prolonging the agony. The author argues that the market won’t reach bottom and start back up until the bad credit risks (or at least the worst of them) are out of the homes and bad loans. In particular, he writes:

….Government policy is working against itself. The Fed is pushing on a string — it can’t bring back confidence in specific assets by flooding the market with generalized liquidity, though it can certainly undermine confidence in the dollar and its own anti-inflation credibility. On all sides, meanwhile, the call for a housing bailout is becoming deafening, nigh irresistible. But the seized-up credit markets won’t be unseized by trying to induce debtors to cling to houses they now see as throwing good money after bad.

By definition, the only haircut lenders rationally want to take is the minimum required to keep owners on the fence about walking away. Not much better are bailout plans that try to keep borrowers in their homes by shifting some of their equity losses to the taxpayer. The market has utterly changed from the market in which these recent purchasers made their purchase decisions. They’ve been renting their homes and don’t really lose much through foreclosure. Let them go.

What do you think?

A story in today’s New York Times reports that bankruptcies were up 18 percent in February. Of particular note:

Americans filed for bankruptcy in growing numbers in February, buckling under the combined weight of rising energy prices, a weakening housing market and sky-high personal debts.

An average of 3,960 bankruptcy petitions were filed per day nationwide last month, up 18 percent from January and up 28 percent from a year earlier, according to Automated Access to Court Electronic Records, a bankruptcy data and management company.

 February was the busiest month for filings since Congress overhauled the bankruptcy law in 2005. Bankruptcy experts said the rise was particularly worrisome because those changes made filing for bankruptcy more complicated and expensive.

 “This number of bankruptcies may be under-representative of the true financial distress consumers are feeling because of the steps Congress has taken,” said Jack Williams, a scholar in residence at the American Bankruptcy Institute and a professor at Georgia State University.

The latest figures show the financial pain is spreading from states like California and Florida, which exemplified the housing boom and subsequent bust, to those along the Eastern Seaboard like Maryland, Virginia and Delaware, which were among the 10 states with the largest percentage increase in filings in January and February. “You are seeing a good-size uptick everywhere,” said Mike Bickford, president of Automated Access.

As tempted as I am to fire off a snappy (read: snippy) response to some of the misunderstandings contained in Frank LLosa’s recent post about RPAC, I’m reminded of Seth Godin’s admonition that miscommunication is almost always the fault of the communicator, not the recipient. So if Frank has his facts wrong about something VAR does…especially something so essential to his business as RPAC…it’s likely VAR’s fault for not communicating more thoroughly or frequently or clearly.

So, herewith, a primer on RPAC for them what want or need to know:

1. RPAC is the largest PAC in America. RPAC of Virginia is the biggest business PAC in Virginia. Big deal? Heck, yeah. When it comes to the funding of a Political Action Committee, size matters…at least it does to candidates and elected officials. The better funded your PAC, the more likely elected officials are to think twice before doing something that would negatively impact your real estate business, or more importantly your customers and clients. It’s the “carry a big stick” theory of politics, and it’s effective. That’s why we beg and plead with you to invest every year. Because it’s the only protection you’ve got against bad law and regulation. Sure, you can give individually to whomever you wish…but where’s the big stick? (And yes, that makes it all the more imperative that we consider and develop carefully our policy positions so that they’re about what’s good for Virginia, good for our communities, good for consumers…and not solely self serving).

2. RPAC of Virginia gives fairly evenly to Democrats and Republicans. National RPAC does, too. We’re not affiliated with a political party. We represent candidates who support private property rights and fair land use policies and housing opportunity and free enterprise. In the recent General Assembly election cycle here in Virginia, we supported more Republicans than Democrats…which makes sense, considering the Republicans were the party controlling both houses of the General Assembly at the time. With the Dems now in control in the Senate, I suspect it’ll be different next time around.

3. RPAC is governed by about 20 trustees who are REALTORS just like (most of) you. They run real estate businesses AND they’re active in state and local politics. So when funding decisions are made, do remember that they’re made by folks who do what you do for a living and understand the issues confronting your profession.

4. This is a biggy: RPAC funds can only be used for CANDIDATES. We’re prohibited by law from using it to lobby; we’re prohibited from using it in issues campaigns (say, to support or oppose a grantors tax increase). Lobbying and issues campaigns are funded with your dues dollars, not with RPAC funds. You invest in RPAC so that your association has funds to help elect candidates who support what’s best for your business and for homeownership in Virginia. That’s pretty much all that your RPAC money is used for. The vast majority of RPAC overhead costs — staff, recognition, brochures, etc — are paid for from your VAR dues dollars, not from the PAC.

5. Before the RPAC Trustees decide to support/endorse a candidate (which usually means we give them money or in-kind campaign support, but not always), we interview the candidates to determine which is best for your interests. We don’t pay attention to a candidate’s stand on social issues; instead, we ONLY look at his or her position on real estate issues. We almost always interview in races for an open seat. In races where an incumbent who has supported your issues is running, we’re less likely to interview; after all, such a candidate has a track record, and we can tell if he’s been for us or against us. On the other hand when an incumbent hasn’t supported us, we either stay out of the race, or we look for someone to challenge him/her in the election. Likewise, most local associations interview candidates before they make endorsements in local races.

6. Which reminds me: Of every dollar you invest in RPAC, 30 cents goes to NAR for use in federal (Congress and US Senate) races. The remaining 70 cents is used in Virginia for statewide and General Assembly races AND in local races (and the local portion is controlled by your local association, but their rules and process for candidate contributions are nearly identical to VAR’s)

7. There are serious limits to what National RPAC can give to Federal candidates (Congress and US Senate). I’ll spare you the gory details, but it totals $15,000 per candidate per election cycle. National RPAC does NOT get involved in the presidential race. In Virginia, however, there are no limits. Still, I think you’ll find the size of our contributions to be in line with those of other groups. There’s a limit, of course, to what the market will bear, and any contribution that seems larger than the market will put us in every newspaper in the state, and…let’s just say the coverage wont be flattering. You can find a record of all political contributions in Virginia at http://vpap.org.

8. Despite the conclusion one might draw from the National Home Builders Association’s recent decision to cease all funding of Congressional candidates until Congress does what the builders want, it’s not about buying votes. Sometimes I wish it was that easy, but I’m glad it’s not. What it’s about is electing thoughtful officials who’ll at least listen when we come to them with good, sound policy proposals. It’s an open door. But if we’re not fighting to elect that kind of candidate, there are plenty of other groups out there with different ideas from you who’ll fill the void with their brand of candidate, and you’ll be out in the cold. If we’re not engaged in political advocacy, we can’t effectively represent you. That’s what RPAC is for.

That’s enough for now. Three last things:

> You’ll find a really cool member-produced video about RPAC on VAR’s website. It’s short, it’s current, and it’s worth your time.

> Here’s a list of 2007 VAR legislative successes, powered by VAR’s first rate lobbying team and your support, but undergirded by the “big stick” that is RPAC. Do note how many of the issues we’re invlved in aren’t only about us, about REALTORS®; rather, they’re about better communities and moving Virginia forward.

> Lastly…I do apologize for being so pedantic. I understand that politics can be an unpleasant and divisive business. But to those REALTORS® who would recoil from it and refer to RPAC as something nasty and say that politics is distasteful and REALTORS should have no part of it, I say this: When they declare that ditch on your investment property a wetland, and they put a tax on your commissions, and they decide to fund the bulk of transportation infrastructure on the backs of homebuyers and sellers, and implement all manner of regulation that negatively impacts your bottom line, you’re going to want to say “Where was RPAC?” And I’ll have to bite my tongue to keep from replying, “Where were YOU?”

I read today that rhinotillexis is on the decline, and that’s a good thing.

The term means “picking one’s nose with one’s fingers.” In an article by Jim Shahin in the February 15, 2008 issue of American Way, a Harvard study reveals that rhinotillexis is down 70% from the year before. The decline is attributed to the fact that cameras are everywhere and people are becoming more cautious about the activity for fear of showing up on YouTube and grossing out their friends.

So for you REALTORS® out there, here’s this friendly warning:  Please don’t pick and drive, especially with clients in the car or around cameras. You never know who’s watching. (Chalk this up to more helpful advice from your association.)